Trading Signs: View on Current Market

NEW BLOG DUE TO ISSUES WITH THIS ONE

2009-05-20T20:47:00.002-04:00

Hi guys,

This blog is giving me a lot of issues and no one is able to post comment I tried to solve the problem but wasn't able to do anything so here's the solution I just created a new blog so please visit the new blog from now on.

I will pretty soon get the domain so you don't have to worry about anything else for future.

http://eminitrends.blogspot.com/

Comment and critics are welcome

Market expectation for 5-21-09

2009-05-20T20:36:00.003-04:00

For better quality make sure you watch the videos in HD format.

Line of control

2009-05-18T19:08:00.002-04:00

Here's my chart of ES and NQ. Look at the line of control on ES. NQ needs to roll over pretty soon or else we will be in imbalance between NQ and ES.

Expecting the expected in unexpected way Part-2

2009-05-14T20:58:00.002-04:00

Few more chart. As I always say "Look at the bigger picture" here are 2yr daily and weekly chart of ES and NQ. The title of this post sums up everything for you. We all EXPECTING to go lower, EXPECTED target is below 600, but there will be a lot of UNEXPECTED events before we reach out target.

So there you have it "Expecting the expected in unexpected way"

Expecting the expected in unexpected way

2009-05-14T09:16:00.000-04:00

Good morning guys,

First of all sorry! No chart but my target for today is to gap down and open around 875 area on ES. I will be taking long position to ride the mid-term oversold market to 905-906 area. I will exit my long and initiate a short position on ES around that area.

Currently I have a working order to go long at 876.75 and exit order at 905.00 Yesterday I mentioned I was feeling something is not right. Well I still have that feeling and I see an upside target to 945 on ES. I know the chances are slim but I still want to keep that in mind as a possibility. This down trend could come as big bear trap also. I suggest keeping your PUT options in high alert. I would definitely take profit around 875 area.

If you don’t feel comfortable going long stay out of this market and short at the top.

Good luck

Bears are out of the woods

2009-05-13T19:22:00.004-04:00

As per the request here are the names of the books I have lined up

Options As A Strategic Investment – Lawrence G. McMillan
McMillan on Options – Lawrence G. McMillan
Option Volatility & Pricing (Sheldon Natenberg) – Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques
Traders Guns & Money (knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives) – Satyajit Das
A Random Walk Down Wall Street – Burton G. Malkiel
The Invisible Computer – Donald A. Norman
How To Make Money In Stocks – William J. O’Neil
The Gorilla Game – Geoffrey A. Moore
The Big Tech Score – Mike Kwatinetz
The Innovator’s Dilemma – When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail by Clayton M. Christensen
Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator [MUST READ, ONE OF MY FAV BOOKS]
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications

5/5/09 Market Analysis

2009-05-05T20:09:00.002-04:00

I am not feeling well so my voice isn't clear. Cheers!!

Pivot point for tomorrow is 900.50 Anything above is bullish, below is bearish.

Good luck

Short /ES @ 875 Expecting gap down.

2009-05-03T14:24:00.000-04:00

Time to go short.

2009-04-16T20:20:00.004-04:00

Spartans Prepare for glory.

2009-03-28T10:56:00.004-04:00

EDIT 5:25 PM EST VIX Chart. Possible Inverse H&S.

EDIT:

4 days ago I posted this.

"If I was one of the MMs what would I do after 500 points rally on Dow?

1. We just got a big announcement by Fed about taking care of all Toxic assets; market cherished the news and stocks rallied. Should I start pushing market down from tomorrow? Not really, why? Because it’s not worth risk/reward plus it will diminish the confidence of individual investors.
2. What should we do to gain confidence? Simple put a candy on investors elbow and ask them to lick. How do we do that? Push this market up.
3. Of course no one expects another big day on Wall Street after 500+ point day; let’s give them another day to celebrate. Once they start taking profit, we will start buying and keep the market momentum up.
4. We will push Dow over 8000 and SPX over 800 and show them the bear market is over. Investors will jump in and think the worse is over. We will start issuing calls and start collecting premium. Once the P/C ratio is at substantial level, we will then show them the real world. Push this baby down in abyss.
5. Wipe out all of them and bank some big coins. Then run back to Govt. and ask them for another round of bailout.

Humm sounds about right. "

Spartans (Bears) Prepare for Glory

Learning from my Mistakes

2009-03-27T21:15:00.003-04:00

Make sure you view in HD mode for best quality

3/26/09 EOD Market action

2009-03-26T20:40:00.004-04:00

I am suppose to post more video but the net is very slow so I shall do that tomorrow.

Comment and critics are welcome.

Cheers!!

I am long gold at 930 (little early but holding)

2009-03-24T12:04:00.005-04:00

UPDATE: 12:45

Ascending triangle formation. could be bullish on Gold.

There is always some news running in market when Gold touches the bottom channel. I think China has something rolled up their sleeves which will devalue the dollar and push gold up. I am keeping my long as my safe bet in this crazy market.

Friends at MarketGuru.com also suggested to stay long on gold with following information.

One of a very well known gold investor at MG wrote to me on my question about gold.

"I trade both on TA and the fundies, but I must say, that I disagree with your bearish position on gold at this juncture. My read on the TA side is simply: price has consistently been able to bounce off its lower channel support line, the most recent example last week. Further, note that it has not only reclaimed its 200 day MA, but has staged rallies on the three most recent occasions it has challenged its 50 day MA (unmistakable sign of strong hands stepping in to support). Thus, while entirely possible further corrections may occur, the chart suggests to me some serious fundamental breakdown would have to transpire for gold to collapse much beyond $875.

From a fundie perspective, I'd offer four points for consideration:
1. Bernanke's move last week may set off a global round of competitive devaluations, incredibly bullish of the yellow metal.
2. The Russian finance minister has very recently declared its country's intent to increase its official gold reserves from the current 2% to as much as 10%.
3. In addition, significant numbers of central banks are showing signs of increasing their purchases of gold, which is a sea change from the past twenty years, where they have been net sellers.
4. In the most recent G20 meeting, Russia proposed discussion (and was agreed in principal by the Chinese) relative to replacing the dollar as the official global reserve currency. Instead, a "basket" of currencies alternatives was suggested.

I'm no sage," but in my view, when both TA and Fundies point me in the same direction, I stand up, take note, and take action. Buy gold. Buy even more Silver."

Other investor wrote the following:

" I wouldn't necessarily consider myself as being strictly a "Gold Guru" but I am very bullish on Precious Metals (Gold/Silver). As a result I have a strong concentration of precious metals investments both in real money and in my MG portfolio. In the short - term you may be right Gold is a small market Silver even smaller. It doesn't take much selling relative to other asset classes for big pull backs to occur in precious metals. I think Gold and Silver will both have a good year in 2009 though. Gold should hit $1200 and Silver will be back at $20 at the least, maybe even $25-$30. I think what many people miss who are bearish on Gold & Silver is that they view them as just commodities. It is true they are commodities and in normal economic times they trade based on those fundamentals. However, we are far from a normal economic environment and countries across the world are competing to devalue their currencies. For this reason Gold & Silver are returning to their historical role as currencies. Just look at the trading action in Gold after the FED printed a $ 1 Trillion in a day to purchase the debt of their own country. I am expecting even more "Un-Conventional" monetary events like these to occur, which will be the main driver of a huge bull market in precious metals."

Good luck guys.

I welcome your input on gold.

Line of Control on SPX

2009-03-17T19:32:00.004-04:00

Choppy Market VS. 3 possibilites

2009-03-13T20:09:00.002-04:00

There are three possible scenario Red, Purple and/or Black

Red scenario = we are done going up and expect sharp pull back and breach 730.

Purple scenario = we run up to 770 then fall back to 730 rally back to 800 and then fall down.

Black scenario = breach 800 and test 840 and retreat

P.S this is /ESH9 chart.

We are very near to the top before big pluge

2009-03-11T09:10:00.001-04:00

I see market is very near to 38.2% retracement level. Which is 1135 on /NQ (Nasdaq futures) and /ES 744 (E-mini S&P 500 futures)

I personally think market will top out today, I could be wrong but I already started accumulating FAZ, I will start adding SRS, SDS, SKF, TWM, DXD, QID. In my real account I trade futures so I will be shorting /ES and /NQ. When I see and take my position I will send you guys another note.If you want you can always follow my live trading on twitter.

http://twitter.com/gurughantal

If you are long don’t expect to hold them longer. When you see profit start taking it. I suggest take at least 50% profit when market kiss 38.2% so watch out for 744 and 1135.

Let’s make money guys.

Cheers!!

p.s. all 3 of my gurus are on same page. I think you can't ask for more.

Shorted /YG Gold @ 939.6

2009-03-07T15:53:00.004-05:00

Tomorrow's Target for /NQ & /ES

2009-03-05T19:39:00.008-05:00

March 5,2009

High 1105.25
Low 1072.00
Close 1083.00

March 6,2009 /NQ
R3 1134.75
R2 1120.00
R1 1101.50
S1 1068.25
S2 1053.50
S3 1035.00

March 5,2009

High 707.00
Low 676.25
Close 686.00

March 6,2009 /ES

R3 734.00
R2 720.50
R1 703.25
S1 672.50
S2 659.00
S3 641.75

/ES acting as expected.

2009-03-03T16:57:00.004-05:00

Yesterday I posted the chart with 2 possibilities and this updated chart as to today’s close speaks for itself. Technically there is no support left on /ES.

If you look at the SPX chart you can see the next possible support is around 650 but I highly doubt it will hold. I see SPX to land anywhere 615-600.

I am holding my /NQ short (heavily short) and I am long SRS

Possible reverse day to test 720 on ES

2009-03-02T21:57:00.002-05:00

Tow possibilities tomorrow. The orange scenario is we just head straight to 680-650 level on /ES

The purple scenario we head to 720-725 to make it seems we bottomed and then turn down to 650 levels. 720-725 level on /ES will be a great place to initiate short position.

ES will retest 760-765 tomorrow.

2009-02-26T20:37:00.004-05:00

UPDATE: 9:15 AM (2-27-09)

Yazzer gave me the 4^th possibility yesterday of gapping down and look where futures are trading. Great call Yazzer!

My long /NQ hit my stop and I was out of it, since I am playing with Gold and so far so good. I am long gold. We can expect 720 on /ES today we may pull back at 750 to fill the gap.

/ES can run to 787 or even 840 level

2009-02-26T08:05:00.002-05:00

EDIT: 11:15 SPX is showing the blue line is still in play

Awesome day after long time.

2009-02-24T20:04:00.005-05:00

EDIT: Short 1 /NQ @ 1164.75

Over all I had a great day today. Yesterday I sold my entire short except my JPM June Puts. I went long with FAS, SSO and DRYS yesterday and shorted SRS today morning at the dip. I closed all my position as I was unsure about tomorrow’s direction.

No too far, 6000 and 650 is around the corner.

2009-02-19T21:33:00.004-05:00

We are on right track, Expecting new low this week.

2009-02-17T19:34:00.002-05:00

Proud Indian, proud PATEL

2009-02-16T11:52:00.005-05:00

Kamelesh Patel was paralyzed at the age of 5 when he didn’t even know what is paralysis, but he never give up his dream to become dancer. What he said to all three judges is that by coming on to this stage he wants to send a message to Indians that paralysis is not a tragedy, if you really want something in your real life you give your 100% and you will get it.

All judges were left speechless after his performance and they said no one in India can judge your performance, you are already a winner.

After watching this video I wasn’t able to control my emotions and my eyes were wet. This guys is straight up inspiration. I came across so many people who actually hates Indian, and even Indian people who are bored and raised in USA hates PATEL (I still don’t know why)

This is the answer to all haters, no matter how much you hate us, make fun of us, our intention are clear and we will not stop till we get there. So keep on hating because we are proud Indian and we are proud PATEL and we are unstoppable.

Vijay PATEL One armed basketball player

Mad respect for these guys.

3 possibilities on SPX

2009-02-13T07:44:00.005-05:00

UPDATE 1:15PM

So far so good. SPX is still in those channels. Let's see if this works as expected to form H&S on SPX

UPDATE 11:50AM

Possible H&S formation on SPX.

UPDATE 11:30 AM

So far so good. SPX is acting as expected under the blue line. Let's wait and watch.

UPDATE: 10:40AM

We are gradually climbing to scenario 1, a retest of 841 on SPX. I am still holding my short position, but if we run towards 850 I will be 100% cash for better entry to short either at 850 or 865.

Did you panic today?

2009-02-12T20:26:00.003-05:00

================================================================

Now let's look at some SPX charts.

Look what /ES is trying here!!!

2009-02-12T13:33:00.003-05:00

Another update: 2:57PM. Having fun BEARS?

UPDATE: 2 downtrend lines.

Line of control – “no mercy”

2009-02-12T11:18:00.002-05:00

Get ready bears we are in for wave 5 action?

2009-02-11T22:23:00.003-05:00

This is my chart,

Following chart is edited by sprinkles. Thanks Sprinkles for the EW input.

Our friends at Slope of Hope are also on the same page

http://slopeofhope.com/2009/02/11/gimme_five.htm

And xTrends Atilla is also on board : - http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/02/possibility-for-sizable-gap-down.html

SPARTAN PREPARE FOR GLORY.

Beware Dow is making a run back to 8000

2009-02-11T15:11:00.003-05:00

Today was great but what about tomorrow?

2009-02-10T19:35:00.007-05:00

Let's look at the SPX with RSI. RSI is still in the downtrend. More pain for bulls.

William % and RSI both together, still room to go down. Hit em hard Bears.

Are you ready to rumble????????????

2009-02-10T14:53:00.001-05:00

We are there guys, just few more ticks and we will be served royal meal.

I hope everyone is ready for the ride. Let's push this baby down.

Do you see batman?

2009-02-06T13:03:00.003-05:00

I see Batman coming.

Can we pull back from here?

2009-02-06T11:39:00.002-05:00

Expecting a little bounce tomorrow.

2009-02-05T19:47:00.006-05:00

/ES testing resistance level.

2009-02-05T11:34:00.002-05:00

Very interesting find by my friend [Big Trend Trader]

2009-02-04T09:01:00.002-05:00

Big Trend Trader

Very interesting pattern. If today's action is similar we can expect huge sell off by end of this week or early next week. I will be watching my picks JPM, HBC and PNC closely today.

Once again DOW closed above 8000

2009-02-03T20:18:00.002-05:00

8000 on Dow is a strong support. But wait! The weakness in market is clear. What does that mean? Are we going up or down?

Well we are in bear market so look at the bigger picture, we are going down but for short term we are looking at some bullish signals. Check out the SPX chart. Can we bounce back all the way to 860? Well that’s a possibility, keeping that in mind I took my JPM puts off the table with very handsome profit.

I am still bearish over all but now 40% cash and 60% short. My next short candidates are JPM, HBC and PNC. Why not BAC and C? Because there is no juice left to squeeze,

BAC and C are done deal but that will give huge negative impact on JPM (currently trading at $24, HBC currently trading at $38 and PNC @ $29.00) I would like to get my hands on these banks to get more out of it. I can certainly use some bounce in these bank. Possible intraday jump tomorrow or a gap up will give me a nice entry to short.

JPM, HBC and PNC charts shows risk/reward. I would initiate short position on PNC around $32.50 JPM around $25 and HBC around $40-42 range. So far looking at the chart JPM is the winning candidate for short in near term (possibly tomorrow)

More after dinner.

We can expect a nice pull back here...

2009-02-03T11:50:00.001-05:00

Will it change this time?

2009-02-02T20:35:00.003-05:00

Some interesting facts I want to bring to your attention. Let’s talk about S&P 500 chart. The trendline from 11/21/08’s low is showing relatively strong support. SPX tried to break the trendline twice and fail. Will it change this time? Well will see it tomorrow.

Another interesting point is about DOW. It closed below the support level! If we check the track record of DOW surprisingly, after every close below 8000 the very next day DOW closed above 8000. Will it change this time? Can we have a close below 8000?

If it does what can we expect?

Let’s take a look at VIX, Can we expect the scenario but in reverse? Can VIX explode to upper side and set ne high?

At this moment I am short but If market is running towards 8000+ I will lock in my profit and go 100% cash. If market is showing weakness I will take my small quantity short off the table with profit and ride with the wave with other short position.

I am curious to see what others are thinking after examine these charts.

Are we ready for the big drop?

2009-01-29T19:12:00.005-05:00

Today was an interesting day for me. In the middle of busy work day I was keep watching my chart very closely. Today’s close around 845 is an important close. Tomorrow we will have action day.

What I mean by action day is kind of clear on the above chart. Look how we rally from 12/26/08 to 1/6/09 and then straight down from 1/7/09 to 1/15/09. Now look at the rally from 1/21/09 to 1/28/09 and drop day similar to 1/7/08 was today. We already broke the trend line but if we gap down below 835 then we can expect big sell off. It can push SPX down all the way to 815 area and retest the 830 area.

Special Thanks to Tim Knights for this find.

It is also possible that we may gap down and suckers will buy after first hour all the way to close and on Monday market tanks.

Look at the Oval and Box to compare the previous 'A' trend.

This chart is 9 month daily with Aroonindicator and William % which clearly shows we are back in the down trend. Tomorrow we can expect a nice down day.

Another look at 60day 60 min chart, Again to show you with RSI and William % that w a

9 month weekly chart also shows we are closed back in the trend.

Today I closed my FAS, FAZ, QLD and SSO position. I bought FAZ at $43.27

Shorted QCOM @ $34.85 & MS @ $21.67

Tomorrow is important day for us (Bears)

2009-01-28T18:46:00.004-05:00

Every time we cross 20 DMA or 200 DMA market pulls back big time. We crossed 20 DMA and testing the resistance right where we close.

NASDAQ actually closed above the lower channel line If it drops below the channel bears can expect nice day

SPX also closed at the critical level. Tomorrow we can expect a pull back as the unemployment numbers are coming out and on Friday GDP numbers are coming.

Is this a bull trap? Well let me start a poll for that.

If you look at the charts, you will see on each index we are at a nice resistance level. If tomorrow we close above these resistance levels we can expect nice rally, but if we fail you can see how hard this will drop. Currently my position is as follow

Long SSO @ 24.12 [hedge play]

Long FAZ @ 60.80 [wrong entry point]

Short FAS @ 12.12 [expecting Financials to pull back, most banks gained over 50% in short time]

Short QLD @ 25.90 [early entry but if market turns I will add more]

Can we break the 863 resistance level?

2009-01-28T09:18:00.002-05:00

Here are the 2 charts /ES and SPX, 6 month daily chart if you see the line I draw we are going to test the 863 resistance level today. If we are not able to break the R1 we will can expect Niagara falls, if we break next stop will be around 890.

Currently I have FAZ only 10% and shorted QLD 25% I am 65% cash I may add more into FAZ based on the market conditions.

SPX needs to cross 835 to keep the BULLs party going

2009-01-23T13:38:00.001-05:00

SPX & /ES at important support levels.

2009-01-22T11:38:00.003-05:00

SPX support at 804

2009-01-21T09:22:00.003-05:00

SPX closed at 805 right above the support level of 804. I expect a gap up around 816 and test 822 on SPX. I will close my JPM short at 786 and wait for the market direction to go long or short.

Unfortunately, I won’t be able to post much today as my uncle passed away yesterday night and I am travelling to other state. I will post the updated chart tonight. Good luck.

Update: 10:03 AM

Target of 822 on SPX short JPM @ 20.00

Closed all long position - Short JPM @ 18.77

2009-01-20T15:14:00.003-05:00

I am 100% cash right now. closed all long position. I will update the portfolio later.

Update: Shorted JPM @ 18.77

S&P 500 flirting with the trendline.

2009-01-20T12:46:00.002-05:00

S&P 500 flirting with the trendline and my emotions. Lol just kidding! We are trying to break through but it seems the downtrend is pushing it down every time it breaks the line. I am might close my current position and go all cash. If we get EOD rally I may take half off and try to ride with the other half.

Bermuda triangle on SPX.

2009-01-19T18:52:00.002-05:00

Out of the downtrend but not quite in the uptrend. SPX kept us all in the guessing situation over the long weekend. Few of the support level where I would like to add a long position for short term are 816, 830 & 845. Tomorrow is a big day with Barak Obama heading to white house. Will investor welcome B. Obama with 200-300 point rally on DOW? On my chart I see SPX at level to test different trend line resistance level. If I look closely its not a huge difference between all 3 trendlines. If we gap up and open above 865, we will be back in the uptrend. For now I am expecting market to give us green days.

As you can see current position is SSO, UWM and C calls. The invert H&S on SPX is what keeping me in long position. I will be heavily shorting HBC, JPM and BAC around 940 on SPX.

Invert Head & Shoulder on SPX.

2009-01-16T13:08:00.005-05:00

As expected we tested 830 on SPX. We should see a nice pull back here and rally in the close or next week. I will hold all my long position unless something changes.

We are standing right in between of 857 & 834.

2009-01-16T11:48:00.003-05:00

We may test the 834 but if we pull back and cross 857 we can test the 38.2% (867) retracement level. I may get out of the C call by the EOD and hold SSO & UWM till next week.

I think we will likely to test 867 today and most importantly close above 857

Back in action - Once again SPX Closed at 50% retracement level

2009-01-15T20:14:00.005-05:00

We are back in action, as per my previous post we tested the 818 support level and now back to the 50% retracement level. Financials took huge hit today (I had C puts and HBC puts which I sold and now long SSO, UWM and C). BAC and C are reporting tomorrow if they are inline with the expectation they will have nice bounce. BAC will receive 15Billion from Govt. which will restore confidence FOR NOW!!

If SPX opens at 856 tomorrow we can expect to test the 38.2% @ 866. Next week B. Obama will stretch his leg in White house and before he does that America will welcome him with open arms by taking SPX around 944 by next week. That will be the perfect point to take substantial size of short position.

Sold Citi PUTs with 125% profit.

2009-01-15T10:48:00.004-05:00

I am half off the table. Still holding HBC March PUTs. I am LONG SSO @ $21.90. As I think the 818 support level is strong.

Update:

Long UWM & SSO. Out of all short. Seems like the support is strong at 820. this should take us to SPX @ 867.

SPX closed right at the 50% Fib retracement level

2009-01-14T19:02:00.003-05:00

SPX closed right at the 50% fib retracement level. I was 100% sure that we will close at the 50% retracement level which I posted on xTrends, I was expecting 850 close because I was at work and my charts were not as accurate as home. To make bulls and bears guess about tomorrow’s direction market closed right at the split point.

Not only we broke the trend line but also we closed right at the 50% retracement level. With Steve Jobs health concern, BOA’s bail out and JPM & INTC reporting I am expecting SPX to test the 818.60(61.8%) retracement level. If we are not able to hold that support level the next support level will be 784 @ 78.6% retracement level.

I am looking at following possible resistance and support levels.

R1 = 856 ( 11/12/08, 12/12/08, 12/29/08, support level)

R2 = 866 (38.2% Fib retracement)

R3 = 896 (23.6% Fib retracement )

Supports

S1 = 818 (61.8% Fib retracement)

S2 = 784 (78.6% Fib retracement)

S3= 741 (11/21/08 Lows @ 100% Fib retracement)

I personally see SPX to bounce back from S1 61.8% Fib retracement level and play between R1 and R2. R2 will be a great place to short. I will close half of my short position at S1 and ride with the other half to either S2 or R1.

Sold SSO and FAS - Trend line broken

2009-01-14T10:49:00.002-05:00

Based on my previous chart, we had this gap down possibility. SPX broke the trend line and now testing the support level at 834. I am out of my long position and took small short position.

If SPX is not able to hold the 834 support we are likely to test the 824 (61.8% Fib retracements)

If we rally from the 834 level I will get out of my short and be side line for a clear market direction.

Possible Gap up above 877 on SPX

2009-01-13T18:59:00.003-05:00

Today we closed flat but right at the 38.2% fib retracement level. With other indicators like MACD, Williams %, Price oscillator and RSI we can see we can expect a gap up tomorrow.

Gap up above 877 will make SPX to test the 23.6% which is 896. If SPX pierce that resistance level we can expect 960 on SPX.

Another confirmation for gap up tomorrow is VIX. VIX just fall off the cliff today. With other indication VIX is weak.

Still long SSO & FAS

Expecting EOD rally.

2009-01-13T15:26:00.001-05:00

Indicators are showing a nice support at 862 on SPX. Today we can expect either a flat closing or EOD rally. Based on the support level and Williams % with the MACD we can expect EOD rally. If we manage to go higher than 38.2% retracements level the next target on SPX will be 896.

Still holding Long SSO & FAS

Expecting to test 896 level on S&P500

2009-01-12T20:44:00.004-05:00

We closed above the Fib 38.2% retracements level. We are still in the uptrend and will test 23.6% retracement level before we break the trend & head towards 50% retracement level. Looking at the Williams %R you can see we are in for a nice bounce.

I took the SSO long position based on this chart. Over all I am still bearish but for short term I am long. I want to play both the sides.

LONG SSO @ 24.50

2009-01-12T15:13:00.003-05:00

We may see last hour rally, I am long SSO @ 24.50. This is a very short term trade I am playing. I will go short around 890-900 level on /ES. If I see anything on chart I will post my entry/exit here.

Sold SSO. - Stop Loss.

2009-01-12T14:36:00.002-05:00

I am out of my long SSO position due to my tight stop loss. I will wait for a better entry point to get long. Still holding my XLF PUTs, TWM and FAZ

/ES is ready to test the support here [870].

2009-01-12T13:42:00.005-05:00

/ES will test the support level here. With options expiring this week we can expect expiration rally as we are at the support level. I am still bearish but for short term I am expecting bounce around 890-900 on /ES. To play this short term bounce I am long SSO. I am still holding my XLF March PUTS. I took a nice profit on my Citi PUTs.

MS is a good candidate for Short, but I will wait for a better entry point.

/ES (E-Mini S&P500 Futures) at critical level.

2009-01-09T13:18:00.004-05:00

If /ES brakes this level (885 level) it should take us down to 850. Breach 850 support level /ES will set new low.

If we close below 885 on /ES today, next week we can expect big sell off. This support level is strong and /ES is keep bouncing from that level.

S&P 500 Comparison

2009-01-08T21:13:00.001-05:00

To compare different scenario on S&P 500, I want to compare daily, weekly, monthly and yearly charts to see where we stand.

This is the 1928 to today 01/08/2009's SPX chart showing a very simple but very important trendline. This is why most experts are expecting SPX to touch 500-550 points level. I am no expert but I believe what I see. Do I see 550 mark on SPX in 2009? Yes it is very obvious we will. when? I don't know because I am still not on that level.

Here is the weekly chart from 2006 to Current day showing downtrend which was broken in Sept- Oct 2008.

Here is the chart number 3 which is six months daily chart showing downtrend which was broken late December 2008 on very low volume.

This is my final chart for today, 90 days daily one hour chart showing up & down trends. Again we broke the six months daily chart in late December (practically in last 2 days of 2008) on very low volume.

The uptrend was not able to pass the 50% level and failed, leaving us at the critical level around 900-905. Tomorrow SPX needs to break the 900 level and test the 880 support level. If it fails the 880 support level it’s anyone’s guess where we are heading.